Old script and choreographed reaction

 

KARACHI:

A day after militants gunned down 26 members of a tourist group in the mist-veiled meadows of Baisaran, nestled in the heart of the occupied Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir, the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government wasted no time in casting blame across the border.

Pointed rhetoric followed within hours of the attack, with Pakistan once again cast as the perennial antagonist in a familiar geopolitical drama. The machinery of accusation roared to life, mirroring the script of six years ago in Pulwama, when 40 Indian security personnel were killed, and the search for culpability was framed before the dust had even settled.

Thirty-three hours after the gunfire shattered the illusion of calm in the occupied territory, the Modi government announced a series of actions, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the closure of the main border crossing between the two countries, and a further scaling back of its already minimal diplomatic presence in Islamabad.

The IWT, long regarded as a rare thread of cooperation in an otherwise fractious relationship, has hovered on New Delhi's list of pressure points for years. It was last invoked as a threat after the Pulwama attack. Its suspension now signals a renewed willingness to escalate tensions, even as the hunt for the gunmen was still underway as of Wednesday evening.

Despite a little-known group called the Kashmir Resistance claiming responsibility for the attack, Indian authorities quickly shifted the narrative to assigning the blame to Pakistan. In a social media post, the group expressed anger over the settlement of more than 85,000 outsiders' in the Muslim-majority region, accusing the BJP government of provoking a 'demographic change.'

In a charged media briefing after the attack, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, without sharing any evidence, stated that cross-border links to the attack had been discussed in a special meeting of the Indian security cabinet, which led to a decision to suspend the water treaty. Misri emphasized that India would not resume cooperation until Pakistan 'credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.' Islamabad, however, has denied any involvement in the attack, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calling for a national security committee meeting to address the situation.

Analysts have questioned the timing of the attack, which coincided with the visit of US Vice President JD Vance. While, according to Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Vance offered joint assistance in the fight against terrorism, the vice president's official social media account shared little more than a brief condolence post, followed by a series of tweets showcasing his visit to the Taj Mahal - seemingly prioritizing tourism over addressing the ongoing diplomatic crisis.

"Vance's presence in New Delhi at the time of the Pahalgam attack brings to mind the March 2000 massacre in Chattisinghpora, where more than 30 Sikhs were killed in South Kashmir's Anantnag district. That attack unfolded just hours before President Bill Clinton landed in India, drawing significant international attention - much like the echoes this recent assault carries in Vance's presence," Dr. Talat Wizarat, said, referring to the timing of the violence in the occupied territory.

On the nature of the attack and India's broader response - both rhetorical and operational - defence analyst General (retd) Inam-ul-Haq, who has observed such manoeuvres from across the border in the past, said: "The attack took place 50 to 60 kilometres from the Line of Control. Based on the information available so far, it appears to be a security lapse - but India has a long-standing reputation for deflecting such failures onto Pakistan."

Six years ago, India quickly assigned blame for the Pulwama attack to Pakistan and, without hesitation, decided to launch airstrikes. In retaliation, Pakistan launched its own air assault, which led to a dogfight between the air forces of both countries and the downing of an Indian jet. This escalated tensions to the brink of war.

"If anything, India must carefully revisit the lessons learned from Pulwama before venturing further down the path of escalation," cautioned General Inam. "Had it not been for Pakistan's measured response, the incident was perilously close to sparking a full-blown conflict between two nuclear-armed nations. Moreover, it served as a strong reminder to India that it cannot take Pakistan's sovereignty for granted, as such reckless actions could carry grave consequences."

Asked about the Indian government's sabre-rattling, General Inam said, "New Delhi is exploiting the political situation in Pakistan to build pressure, but what it fails to realize is that the country's armed forces have unequivocal public support when it comes to dealing